Monday, April 18, 2005

For a journey through neo-Malthusian theory

check out the following links and the film 'the end of suburbia'

http://www.321energy.com/index.php
-general energy news

http://www.alternative-energy.ws/
-energy blog

http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary13.html
-a blog by the michael moore/al franken equivalent for energy news... very abrasive writing style, and somewhat reactionary

http://theoildrum.blogspot.com/
-a blog by a professor and a senior faculty member in energy production... much less abrasive

http://www.grist.org/
-general environmental news

http://www.energybulletin.net/
-more energy news

Peak oil does not mean no more oil, it is simply the point at which production decreases. The point at which it becomes increasingly difficult to extract the oil due to a field's internal pressure.

...the accuracy of peak oil as a theory is up to you the reader. However, the oil output for the North American continent peaked in 1970 as accurately predicted by the theory's creator Dr. M King Hubbert. He initially predicted a world peak for the mid-90s; current theory says that the gas crunch of the 1970s and its economic downturn delayed the world peak until between 2000 and 2010. According to Matthew Simmons of Simmons & Co. International, the world's largest energy investment bank, Saudi Arabia's oil production peak will mean a world production peak. On that note, the Bank of Montreal has put out an alert on Saudi production peaking. Their largest field, Ghawar, is the field of concern. The method the saudi's have used to increase production rates involves filling the field with water as the oil is pumped out:

One factor contributing to the scrutiny the Gharwar field faces is the huge amount of water injection used. Water is pumped into an ageing oilfield in order to maintain high pressure inside.

This allows the oil to be pumped out at the original constant rate. Eventually, however, the water reaches the well-head, and the field effectively dies.

Coxe goes on to ask why new Saudi fields, not just ageing ones, are also water injected.

This method changes the aging of the oil field. In a standard oil field, the production rate follows a bell curve. With water-injection, the decreasing side of the bell curve drops suddenly as the water reaches the well-head. This method is a short-term solution and can create sudden drops in global supply, especially if/when its used in the world's largest oil field. We'll see how it all works out... I would love to have all of this discredited, but I haven't yet found anyone able to do so.

For a more thorough explanation of peak-oil check out the various links and their primers

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